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Covid Letter To San Francisco


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From The Crow’s Nest:


COVID LETTER TO SAN FRANCISCO

 

By William Thomas

 

 

 

British California

Feb. 29, 2020

UPDATED AND REVISED March 5

 

 

Dear California Girl,

 

Thanks for your call! It was great to talk with you under sail off Alameda on a perfect California Dreamin’ day. I’m delighted you’re having a great time in SF.

 

And I’m dismayed to find you standing in front of a speeding train remarking on the wonderful weather. Or planes. SF International was averaging more than four-and-a-half million passengers in March. Even though air travel volumes are now sharply down, if you really believe that California’s second busiest air hub has “no cases”, I suggest you rethink that uncharacteristic expression of denial.

 

San Francisco is a petri dish. Consider BART’s 300 trains moving 140,000 passengers every day. (48,526 Embarcadero weekday exits, alone.) What about the 8,000 homeless further penalized by squalor downtown? The WHO is expressing concern about “internally displaced populations” – citing “sprawling and densely packed ‘tent cities’” as “the most vulnerable.”

 

You can be 100% certain that SF is hosting the coronavirus. Its most diabolical feature is that infected persons can remain asymptomatic for weeks. Even for those paying attention, like yourself, its stealthy spread ensures that avoiding folks who are obviously ill is useless in dodging covid carriers, who remain outrageously contagious from day 1 of infection – but may present no signs of illness over the next 24 - 27 days. 

 

Covid-19 is the ultimate pyramid scheme. Latest stats show that by the time someone shows symptoms, they could have infected 4 to 7 others. And each of those infected persons can infect 4-7 more, without anyone knowing.

 

And so on.


Fogging doorways to kill coronavirus -Barcroft:Getty

 

And because this patent-pending Wuhan Virus remains invisibly contagious for up to 9 days on plastic and steel, its detection rate on washroom doors, stair rails, shared smart phones or similarly smooth surfaces is also zero. Which is why Japanese and Chinese health authorities are spraying public spaces with disinfectant strong enough to kill small animals. And why I could not find hand-sanitizer anywhere yesterday. (One frazzled clerk barked at me for inquiring.)

 

The Lancet earlier reported case fatality rates of around 3%. On March 5, the WHO officially raised this to 3.4%. “I know it seems counterintuitive,” says former research scientist Paul Noel at a Level 2 lab, “but the very worst epidemics have a fairly low mortality rate between 2.5% and 5%among those infected. Make that 10%+ for infected elderly with medical issues. (More than 15% for infected patients over 80.)

 

Flu case mortality rate = .1%.

 

This is why sailors don’t trust officials ashore.

 

Eight in 10 infected people eventually present only mild symptoms. The remaining 20% of cases require hospitalization and even an ICU. One thing all survivors have in common is that they will have acquired zero immunity: 14 in 100 of those released are re-infected.

 

You say you’ll put on a mask when necessary. N95’s are selling online at predatory prices. And with U.S. health officials now “gagged” by Pence, how will you know?

 

Despite the huge profits at stake, creating, testing and mass-producing an effective vaccine will be problematic since this novel coronavirus is currently averaging around two mutations per month


And it loves bodily fluids. We hominids touch our faces at least 17-times every hour. (Or much more often.) So washing your hands often, avoiding crowds in susceptible areas and not touching your mouth, eyes or nose 17-times-a-minute (good luck wih that!) are highly-advised precautions. 


Which is another good reason to add gloves to your daily fashion ensemble. As for tugging to adjust an unfamiliar mask spreading facial contamination… I admit buying into the apparent common sense plea (really aimed at cutting the consumer rush  for increasingly scarce masks needed by health care workers on the front lines). Until I asked myself: “Self, if masks are so ineffective, why is every person dealing with infected persons in all those videos wearing a mask? And why do healh care workers need more masks to prevent our entire health care system from cratering? ”  


If you think you need one to proetct yourself or others from yur own symptoms, the N95’s blocking 95% of Bad Thinags and N99s blocking nearly all of them, are the only masks and filters to get. If you can. Despite a rugged individual’s reluctance to look like a crazy person in public by wearing a mask  like everyone in Asia demonstrating mass sanity  these could yet become American fashion accessories in places like Nerw York and LA and places in-between.


Why not just come home?

 

As of Feb. 28, Ontario has already tested more people than the 50-state CDC, which wants to keep reported numbers low. And with so many false negatives, multiple tests over several days are required. (USD $3,500 each.)

 

You are dancing with an invisible wildfire. South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, Germany, Singapore and Japan are seeing just how fast this contagion compounds, as unglimpsed background cases double every 3.5 – or even every 2.5 days – according to a Feb. 11, 2020 medical study from Los Alamos.

 

Prudence is the sailor’s palladium. While WHO and Washington continue to censor that other “p” word, thanks to North American networks incessantly showcasing each official uptick, “pandemic” is not the biggest issue. A “panic-demic” spawned by complacency and denial is. When the dozing public awakens, they strip store shelves in a heartbeat.

 

At least they are in Hawaii. Cellphone videos also show shoppers in Italy grappling in food aisles. Store line-ups in South Korea and Hong Kong have stretched for blocks.

 

Your supportive island community is the place to be. Not big cities. Expect to see this slow-simmering scourge taking off in the Bay Area within the next 10 days. Don’t get caught in a stampede that could end in quarantine.

 

As a sailor yourself, I know you won’t turn your back on this 50-nation pandemic. It’s big. It’s not contained. It is coming. That’s as certain as black roll-clouds on the weather horizon.

 

“Sam” is probably right in forecasting a Depression. Will the dollar survive the Fed’s frantic tsunami of money-printing? Or more market panics? In the first five-days of Wall Street's freakout: "$5 Trillion Wiped Out From World Stocks Amid Fastest Collapse In History”. 

 

That’s the rest of the train.


sold-out-washington-state

Sold-out in Washington State


Prolonged disruption of everyday supplies is the #1 hazard. Torpedoed by “demand shock” from a shuttered China, operations at the Port of Long Beach alone have sunk by 25%. How many jobs and business bankruptcies are connected to all those container ships sailing empty? And how many small suppliers to the big production lines in China will fold when they run out of cash reserves in another month or two?


How will Americans cope with the Fed’s fast-looming negative interest rates, when they’re paid to go even deeper in debt  and have to pay to deposit savings in a bank? Probably not too well.


Never mind not being able to replace last year’s smartphone. According to Statista Research, the travel and tourism industry was one of the world’s biggest, with a direct and downstream global economic contribution exceeding USD$7.6 trillion in 2016. Service industries and their spin-off jobs and revenues underlying North American employment are also at risk as more people simply stay home. 


Even if Covid-19 burns out by mid-summer, its lingering economic infection will soon become evident in layoffs and lost income. Meanwhile, the longer this pandemic persists, the harder it will be to restart everything. Reactivating a shuttered factory is not as simple as flipping a switch. Especially if its suppliers have gone bust.


So please take a quiet moment and read my posts at willthomasonline.net. Then keep a sharp lookout and  since you’re staying – enjoy your former hometown. I gotta admit, talking with you on Sam’s boat, I wished I was there.

 

And you know what?

 

Remembering Celerity’s sails in Alameda and the Bay…

 

I was.

 

Love,

Capt. Will

 

 


Note:

William Thomas is the author of Bringing The War Home, the first documented exposé on experimental vaccines and chemical-biological warfare during the first Gulf War.

 发件人     William Thomas 2019