Louis Nguyen photo
IS GEOENGINEERING PUSHING US INTO
The short answer is yes.
Start with something dynamic, like the weather and its increasing propensity toward sudden, drastic and lingering surprises. As the geologic record of mass extinctions repeatedly shows, if pushed too far by various atmospheric forcings (like mass methane releases or meltwater shutdowns of ocean circulations), the longer-term weather patterns we call climate can change drastically, for a very long time, within a decade. Or a year.
Geoengineers understand that complex weather behaviour emerges from a few simple initial conditions. Change those conditions along a broad atmospheric front by deploying aerial refuelling tankers to spread particles that accrete moisture and scatter incoming sunlight, absorb energy from ionospheric heaters like HAARP, or rapidly cool air masses by dispensing ice-nucleating chemicals like an aerial flash-mob –and you change the heat balance of that airspace and thus the resulting weather. Do this repeatedly, spreading megatons of atmospheric-forcing particulates behind hundreds of heavy aircraft for many years and even climate can be altered.
But which way will it jump?If the flapping of a butterfly's wings can randomly influence the course of a distant hurricane, consider an air force wing of 72 jet tankers,
each spreading 200,000 pounds of aerosol particles one-tenth the diameter of a human hair along a flight path traversing thousands of miles. With our compounding emissions already shoving heat and humidity in some places to the edge of liveable limits, geoengineering is the unwelcome bully that threatens to jerk the trigger on looming abrupt climate shift.
Aerosol geoengineering fallout, Sakatoon, Canada
Earth's climate system is chaotic enough to turn occasional stumbles into full-fledged flip-outs. So the last thing anyone would want to do is to trigger such an upset with planeloads of monkey-wrenching aerosols.
To elevate such planetary roulette from blind swings at a constantly shifting atmospheric piñatato a reliably predictable science, the desired weather/climate output must be proportional to each atmospheric modification input. And the resulting atmospheric events must also react the same ways every time. That's why we call such predictable progressions, linear.
But the atmosphere, like life, is so nonlinear.
Nonlinear means “full of surprises”. While short-term moisture, temperature and pressure trends can presage near-term weather over a day or two, the further forecasts extend, the more variables are introduced by air masses feeding back on themselves. Other variables faced by the geoengineers include heat-trapping gases accumulated over the past hundred years, atmospheric and oceanic “feedbacks” like major methane burps, hyper-evaporation, warming waters and melting ice sheets, unscheduled volcanic eruptions and climax civilizations bristling dirty with exhausts of varying sizes – plus their own geoengineering grandiosity, ongoing since at least 1997, when I broke this story worldwide for Environment News Service. [Chemtrails Confirmed 2010 by William Thomas]
Because changes occur in Earth's intricately-coupled biosphere simultaneously and interactively, attempting to anticipate and alter so many constantly changing conditions makes large-scale climate modification an exercise in juggling snakes. Begin with a few characteristics of the long-term weather patterns you want to change. Just seven building blocks can interact with each other one million different ways. Jump to a hundred climate-determining factors and each one will interact with the other 99, yielding 10 billion possibilities. can outcomes are more likely than others. But this hardly precludes unpleasant nonlinear responses to deliberate planet meddling. [Spirit magazine 1994]
Remember, the atmosphere is an “adaptive” participant in every geoengineering mugging, responding to each input every timewith widely different outcomes. Since abrupt discontinuities are a prime feature of nonlinear systems, when attempting large-scale weather modification, unintended consequences are built-in. Like turning off the African and Asian monsoons on which many billions of not-just-human lives depend.[20 Reasons Why Geoengineering May Be A Bad Idea]
WE'RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER, BUT SOME MORE THAN OTHERS
Every time you start your four-wheeled carbon burner, you're a geoengineer. Every time a commercial airliner climbs into the stratosphere, all onboard are geoengineers. Ditto that coal-fired power plant down the street. The big difference is, it's your choice whether to turn the key, board that plane, or join a citizens' group demanding clean energy. As for your input into whether those jets overhead continue dimming the sun – not so much.
The result of all this inadvertent and deliberate atmospheric forcing is climate chaos. “Chaotic” means “unpredictable”. Punch-drunk by our ever-accumulating heat-trapping exhausts, at least 17 years of concerted geoengineering efforts, a wonky jetstream, and dozens of amplifying feedbacks from thawing tundra, clearcut forests, burning forests, melting ice sheets and the world ocean's expanding heat reservoir (to mention only a few) – it's no wonder so much inconvenient weather is lurching across this planet.
With global warming causing more global warming, how do increasingly destabilized weather systems respond to deliberate further prodding by targeted laydowns of particulates powerful enough to disrupt air masses and soak up residual moisture like a sponge?
Nobody knows. The atmospheric predictions produced by our best supercomputers crunching incomplete data that ignores climate feedbacks and geoengineering are falling further behind the alarming headlines resulting from a churning complexity that is ultimately unknowable.
Given all the still-uncalculated feedbacks we've set in motion, most notably geoengineering, it's not surprising that climate changes continue to outpace our models. Any climate activist or scientist” who continues to ignore these well-documented aerosol assaults is working with a seriously flawed premise.
But “gross” geoengineering outcomes can be observed. There is no question that Solar Radiation Mismanagement (SRM) by allied governments is contributing significantly to the Great Drying, which may soon segue into the Great Dying. This is why the authors who studied Mount Pinatubo's eruption do not support geoengineering. “Creating a risk of widespread drought and reduced freshwater resources for the world to cut down on global warming,” they write, “does not seem like an appropriate fix.” [This Changes Everything]
To call geoengineering an inexact science is to suggest that if you repeatedly jab a gut-shot tiger with a stick it might do something unpleasant. We know from years of airborne experimentation that attempting to impose an inherently flawed model on Earth's atmosphere under the official hubris of “Owning The Weather”invariably produces the opposite result. As Naomi Klein writes, geoengineering “may cause the earth to go wild in ways we cannot imagine, making geoengineering not the final engineering frontier... but the last tragic act in this century-long fairy tale of control.” [This Changes Everything]
WELCOME TO CLIMATE CHAOS
So what does climate chaos look like?
It looks like dozens of craters, one more than a half-mile in diameter, caused by pockets of exploding methane in the thawing permafrost of northern Russia, where temperatures prowl up to +20°C above longtime norms, and the resulting wildfires over hundred-mile fire fronts
are spreading solar heat-absorbing ash over vast stretches of the once reflective far north.
It looks like meltwater-formed shallow lakes acting as lenses across the tundra, focusing sunlight into thawing even more super-warming methane.
It looks like that blocking high over Brazil, where Sao Paulo's 11 million residents face the prospect of dry taps. Another 33 million people in the Sao Paulo region fear the same fate. And they are not alone.
It looks like California's “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” of high pressure that anomalously persists, re-building itself after every surge of westerly winds or invading cold air threatens to collapse this stalled wall, but under relentless aerial spraying… doesn’t. Weather researcher Daniel Swain can find no evidence of a North Pacific ridge of this magnitude and persistence “in the observational record.”
Aerosol geoengineering over Pennsylvania
WHO DONE IT?
As Rutgers University professor Jennifer Francis explains, the loss of reflective sea ice and resulting heated rising air from dark waters is producing a northward bulge in the jet stream that builds high pressure in the east. Winds flowing “downhill” from this stubborn high are bringing cold Arctic air southward into eastern Canada and the United States. Meanwhile, that persistent high pressure dome off the US west coast is flowing warm, wet air north into Alaska, where the internationally renowned Fur Rondy sled dog race“due to warm weather and heavy rain.”, held every year since 1946, cannot mush.
So is atmospheric warming or geoengineering responsible for California's thirst and Alaska's failed winter? The answer: Both are so intricately meshed, it's no longer possible to distinguish one from the other.
Are all these chemical and contrail sky plumes painting us into an untenable corner? Immediately following the 9/11 attacks, David Travis measured a roughly 2°F difference over those three contrail-free daysbetween the highest daytime and lowest nighttime temperatures across the continental USA. (In 2005, James Hansen's NASA team crunched slightly different numbers and came up with an average mean temperature change of just .05°F – a perfect example of a changed starting point drastically altering complex outcomes.)
We dare not continue a mad experiment that artificially desiccates air masses in order to theoretically slow skyrocketing air temperatures. If Hansen's right, geoengineering is not working. If Travis is correct and we stop spraying particulates (whose tiny 10-micron size is deemed an Extreme Human Health Hazard by the EPA), we face a significant instant temperature jump in a feedback-sensitive atmosphere already heading toward a 4°°-6C rise over fast-looming decades. Are your children down with geoengineering continuing to grease the skids into extinction?
While many point to geoengineering as the culprit behind the ever more intrusive climate change they otherwise deny, and geoengineers use “climate change” to disguise the climate chaos they're inciting, the fact is that nearly two decades of large-scale geoengineering have erased the baseline by which we might measure climate impacts and gauge their rates of change.
The geoengineers are "saving us" to death. Putting our planet's life-support on geoengineering life-support that can't be turned off without an instant spike in temperatures is not a wise idea, Naomi Klein suggests.
Chaos Theory and its offspring science of Complexity show that when unstable systems are pushed past critical thresholds, they lock into amplifying feedbacks. When the dust finally settles, the resulting “phase-locked” equilibrium is always a much simplified state. Examples include disappeared rainforests flipping into deserts, a once-teeming ocean turning into a vast acidic dead zone, seasonal regional climates suitable for agriculture and human life “simplified” into uninhabitability, and seawater inching towards 634 million pairs of human feet.
Like a squeezed trigger, climate change is carrying us toward explosively abrupt climate shift. As Klein comments, when “university professor Rob Nixon describes the brutality of climate change as 'slow violence'; geoengineering could be a tool to significantly speed that up.”
Before we can agree on a global response to climate change, geoengineering is providing another big push toward the kinds of social breakdown stalking Miami Beach, where “slimy green saltwater” from rising seas is filling streets, blocking doors, ruining vehicles, and inundating shops and homes.
Another foot of sea-level rise will be enough to bring salt water into our fresh water supplies and our sewage system,” warns scientist and South Miami mayor Philip Stoddard. “You won't be able to flush away your sewage and taps will no longer provide homes with fresh water. Then you will find you will no longer be able to get flood insurance for your home. Land and property values will plummet and people will start to leave. Places like South Miami will no longer be able to raise enough taxes to run our neighbourhoods. Where will we find the money to fund police to protect us or fire services to tackle house fires? Will there even be enough water pressure for their fire hoses? It takes us into all sorts of post-apocalyptic scenarios. And that is only with a one-foot sea-level rise. It makes one thing clear though: mayhem is coming.”
Instead of buying time, every aerosol mission is reducing the time left to act. And by obscuring the true pace of climate change under veils of artificial clouds and 40°F snow, the geoengineers are making it much harder to respond.
Every day the aerosol tankers fly, politicians beholden to Big Oil can delay meaningful action. And make a Canfield ocean and abrupt climate shift more likely.
So I modestly suggest: Indict the geoengineers for reckless planetary endangerment. And ground the tankers now.