ARE CHEMTRAILS MASKING TRUE GLOBAL WARMING?
WHEN PEAK OIL MEETS GODZILLA
WHEN PEAK OIL MEETS GODZILLA
What do you suppose will happen when faltering oil supplies and skyrocketing demand run head-on into the roaring Godzilla of Climate Change?
If you answered, "Bad juju," go to the head of the class.
If you shouted, "I'm not listening to any more hysterical green commie pinko doom drivel!", better make sure there's still water coming out of your kitchen taps before checking the fuel gauge of your own personal carbon burner. That's right, Bubba. There's a tiger in all our tanks. And he's ravenous enough to devour every life we've known.
Journalist Jan Fel describes Peak Oil as "the period after which global oil and natural gas demand outstrips supply, and the prices for these commodities become too volatile for modern society to function."
News Flash: Americans import about two-thirds of all the oil we use. Yet the world is consuming all the oil it can produce. Kuwait's Great Burgan, the Daqing of China, Cantarell of Mexico, Ghawar of Saudi Arabia, North Sea and Alaska North Slope "superfields" are all past peak and in decline.
Just as demand is surging, net world oil production is falling. As "End Of Suburbia" filmmaker James Howard Kunstler points out, "The top ten exporters are showing a net export decline rate of 7% the past year, trending toward a 50% export decline over the coming ten years."
"Oil looks extremely tight in five years' time," the International Energy Agency declared this month (November 2007). Pointing to a need for doubling and tripling output from OPEC producers, the IEA must have overlooked OPEC's recent faltering attempts to boost production by just 500,000 barrels per day - when the world actually needs an extra 5 million barrels of oil for its daily fix. That's 3 million to make up for the post-peak decline of the older, biggest fields listed above, plus another 2 mil to meet skyrocketing demand from a population attempting to double within decades.
Though demand is set to grow to 95.8 million barrels a day by 2012, the IEA admits: "additional global refining capacity over the next five years will not match earlier expectations."
Not by a country mile.
Iran, formerly the world's second biggest oil producer, is looking for other sources of energy and income. Top-ranked Saudi Arabia's oil fields are in decline. Kunstler reveals an internal Saudi Aramco document estimating total production capacity in 2011 at 10.15 million barrels a day - about their current output. But to meet expected world demand, the Department of Energy says Saudi Arabia must produce 13.6 million barrels a day by 2010 and 19.5 million barrels a day by 2020.
This improbable projection has sparked hysterical laughter in otherwise gloomy Big Oil boardrooms.
RUNNING ON EMPTY
As recently as 2003, the U.S. Department of Energy figured global oil demand will grow to 111 million barrels per day by 2025 - with daily oil output conveniently rising to 123 million barrels as key oil producers like Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia doubled or tripled their oil production.
Oops! By the end of 2005, global daily oil output dropped by 12 million barrels.
"The oil producing nations of the world are currently pumping at full capacity but are struggling to produce much more than 84 million barrels per day," Michael Klare, Professor of Peace and World Security Studies at Hampshire College and author of Blood and Oil and Resource Wars reports.
Can anyone spell s-h-o-r-t-f-a-l-l?
As in cliff?
In March 2005, DOE reversed its calculus, proclaiming: "The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis…The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation… the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary. Previous energy transitions were gradual and evolutionary. Oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary."
Edward Price Jr., former top Saudi Aramco and Chevron executive and leading United States government adviser, expects global oil markets to be in "short supply" by 2015.
He's not kidding. The German Energy Watch Group forecasts oil production to decline 7% a year - plummeting to just 58 million barrels a day by 2020. By then, at least 111 million barrels will be needed to run modern societies.
Buy oil stocks now? A July 27, 2007 article in the Wall Street Journal cautions that investors are "bracing for disappointing results" as the cost of new production rises and output declines. "We're only a headline of significance away from $100 oil," declares a futures broker.
Michael Klare agrees. "A U.S. military strike against Iran could trigger such a price increase in the energy equivalent of a nano-second," says this peace and security specialist.
But we're almost there anyway. Chevron's David O'Reilly, CEO of America's second largest oil giant, has been taking out full-page ads in the New York Times and other newspapers declaring: "One thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over."
"Our entire consumer economy is built on the idea that oil will be relatively inexpensive and infinitely available," writes columnist Rod Dreher at the Dallas Morning News. "But what if it's ending? World supply can barely keep up with demand."
This is not good news. Not even for those demanding immediate carbon cuts.
"The main thing about Peak Oil - and this could be what everyone needs to grasp hold of - is that… oil is so important to everything that modern industrial society is based upon," Kunstler insists. "We can see that the decline of oil will pose serious questions about how we live and the systems, structures and culture we have developed. Peak Oil is therefore a symbol of the high-watermark of the hydrocarbon human and everything associated with it."
Thing is, much of the planet's easy-to-get "light, sweet crude" has already been extracted and pumped into Earth's recirculating and interlinked atmosphere and ocean. The black goo that's left is hard to reach and may be accompanied by bombs and gunfire on its way to aging refineries that can't process it. Kunstler calls it, "Tough oil." And in times of tough oil, "the odds tip toward tough luck as well."